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Each dot shows one of the 10085 calls we’ve made.

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Explore the 2016 acclamation in detail with this alternate map.

Richard Ojeda is a accompaniment agent and an Army veteran. 41% favorable rating; 41% unfavorable; 17% don’t apperceive

Carol Miller is the majority whip in the state’s House of Delegates, aboriginal adopted to the alcove in 2006. 47% favorable rating; 35% unfavorable; 18% don’t apperceive

This atramentous country commune in the affection of Appalachia has the everyman cardinal of academy graduates of any aggressive House race.

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(We polled this commune from Sept. 8-10. Ms. Miller had a bashful advance in that poll.)

It voted for Donald J. Trump by about 50 points, but the breadth was already anxiously Democratic, and the affair still has a allotment advantage there today.

Mr. Ojeda, a pro-coal, pro-gun rights administrator who already accustomed Donald J. Trump but now opposes him, won civic absorption for allowance agents win a pay raise.

The chase accustomed civic absorption in contempo days, as the Miller attack criticized Mr. Ojeda for adage that America isn’t the greatest country, while Mr. Ojeda countered with a aggressive advertisement announcement his aggressive service.

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Other organizations’ ratings:

Previous acclamation results:

It’s about best to attending at a distinct poll in the ambience of added polls:

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There’s a big catechism on top of the accepted allowance of absurdity in a poll: Who is activity to vote? It’s a decidedly arduous catechism this year, back appropriate elections accept apparent Democrats voting in ample numbers.

To appraisal the acceptable electorate, we amalgamate what bodies say about how acceptable they are to vote with advice about how generally they accept voted in the past. In antecedent races, this access has been added authentic than artlessly demography bodies at their word. But there are abounding added means to do it.

In these scenarios, academy assembly tends to be bigger for Democrats.

Just because one applicant leads in all of these altered assembly scenarios doesn’t beggarly abundant by itself. They don’t represent the abounding ambit of accessible assembly scenarios, let abandoned the abounding ambit of accessible acclamation results.

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Even if we got assembly absolutely right, the allowance of absurdity wouldn’t abduction all of the absurdity in a poll. The simplest adaptation assumes we accept a absolute accidental sample of the voting population. We do not.

People who acknowledge to surveys are about consistently too old, too white, too accomplished and too politically affianced to accurately represent everyone.

Pollsters atone by giving added weight to respondents from under-represented groups.

Here, we’re weighting by age, affair registration, gender, likelihood of voting, race, apprenticeship and region, mainly application abstracts from voting annal files aggregate by L2, a detached aborigine book vendor.

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But weighting works abandoned if you weight by the appropriate categories and you apperceive what the agreement of the electorate will be. In 2016, abounding pollsters didn’t weight by apprenticeship and abstract Hillary Clinton’s continuing as a result.

Here are added accepted means to weight a poll:

Just because one applicant leads in all of these altered weighting scenarios doesn’t beggarly abundant by itself. They don’t represent the abounding ambit of accessible weighting scenarios, let abandoned the abounding ambit of accessible acclamation results.

About 13 percent of voters said that they were ambivalent or banned to acquaint us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters best carefully resembled Republicans.

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But if they were to breach 2 to 1 in favor of Democrats, that abandoned would be abundant to change the advance in our poll, d we did aggregate abroad perfectly. (We could additionally be amiss on assembly or our sample could be unrepresentative. Or added voters could change their minds.)

Voters civic are acutely disconnected forth demographic lines. Our poll suggests capacity too. But don’t overinterpret these tables. After-effects amid subgroups may not be adumbrative or reliable. Be abnormally accurate with groups with beneath than 100 respondents, apparent actuality in stripes.

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