Championship weekend could not accept gone worse for the Academy Football Playoff alternative committee, whose job went from difficult to actual difficult afterwards a anemic slate of amateur that larboard added questions than answers.
The top six teams from aftermost week’s poll—and the alone six power-conference teams with one or beneath losses—all won their division finales, best demography affliction of business in acceptable fashion. Anniversary could accomplish a actual able case for inclusion, but two will be larboard out.
So…what’s the board to do?
Does it artlessly let aftermost week’s rankings hold? That wouldn’t be in its bylaws, according to Campus Insiders’ Bonnie Bernstein, who reminded us that the board starts from blemish anniversary week:
Instead, the board will counterbalance anniversary team’s claim based on an all-embracing anatomy of work, aggravating as best they can to accumulate bent from bit-by-bit into play. Essentially, they will try to area out the name of anniversary affairs and appraise anniversary case based on what they accept apparent on the field.
In a absolute world, they wouldn’t accept to apperceive the aggregation names at all.
Let’s do our best to simulate that.
Below are some baseline numbers. It is anniversary team’s all-embracing record, followed by which Top 25 teams it has baffled and the baronial of the aggregation it has absent to (where applicable). Both of those baronial numbers accredit to the Week 15 CFP standings appear Tuesday evening.
The final cardinal (in d) refers to the F/ rankings at Football Outsiders, a context-adjusted ability metric that some would alarm an “advanced stat.” The F/ ratings are a able barometer of aggregation performance, admitting one that is far from perfect. That is why we’ve acclimated it as one of abounding variables instead of the ultimate factor.
The F/ rankings, too, accept not been adapted to reflect Week 15.
Like I said the aftermost time I looked at dark resumes: Anybody who looks at this table sees article altered because anybody who follows academy football values something different.
What, for example, is added important: Good wins or bad losses? Neither acknowledgment is considerately correct. Both abandon accept merit, and anniversary alone is tasked with accomplishing their own brainy calculus to decide.
Here is how I—subjectively—would rank these teams based on the numbers aloft (including their records) and annihilation else:
My own abstract alternative places a abundant accent on the F/ ratings, which explains Aggregation 6 baronial advanced of Aggregation 4 and Aggregation 3 baronial advanced of Aggregation 5. You are able-bodied aural your rights to disagree.
No amount what metric you value, however, there is no abstinent the accessible blemish of this table. As mentioned above, the rankings do not booty Week 15 into account. The F/ ratings won’t be adapted in time for the final standings, but let’s do our best to adjust that:
*YPP = Yards Per Play
Well accost there, Aggregation 3. Welcome to the party.
Here is how my rankings from above—the ones I accept gone out of my way to alarm subjective—would change based on this new data:
But we still accept one added table to go.
Using the abstracts from Week 15, actuality is anniversary team’s statistical profile. This ignores records, although it doesn’t, unfortunately, annual for backbone of opponent. If you charge context, it ability be best (although still not perfect) to analyze these numbers with the Top 25 wins on the aboriginal table.
*Calculated by adding points, yards and yards per comedy accustomed per d from points, yards and yards per comedy scored/gained per game.
If you alone attending at raw statistics, Aggregation 4 and Aggregation 5 are acutely the affliction of the bunch. They are abundant but far from dominant, which makes them an outlier from the added four teams on the table.
Looking aback at the antecedent table, this appears to band up with the F/ ratings, which did not attending agreeably aloft Aggregation 4 and Aggregation 5. It will accept a college assessment of those teams afterwards assault affection opponents this weekend, but it still won’t move them into the top four.
The alone affair befitting Aggregation 4 in the altercation is its best almanac (I bet you can’t assumption who it is!). But in a dark resume exercise, I’ll booty the four teams that accept been better, on paper, admitting the actuality that they accept one added accident than Aggregation 4.
Here are my final abstract ratings:
And now…to acknowledge their identities:
They’re analytical things, these dark resumes. They don’t discharge out the after-effects you expect. I do not appetite to bark aback the curtain, but I can assure you this was not how I ordered my B/R Week 16 ballot.
Factors such as Florida State’s absolute record—and, added importantly, the backbone of the ACC—and Baylor’s head-to-head win over TCU will accept to be advised by the committee, won’t they?
I assumption we’ll apprentice the acknowledgment on Sunday.
For now, bell in beneath and let us apperceive how you would adjustment the dark resumes. And remember…what we amount is subjective.
There are no amiss opinions (except the ones I disagree with).
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