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Each dot shows one of the 28670 calls we made.

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Explore the 2016 acclamation in detail with this alternate map.

Phil Bredesen is a businessman, a above governor of Tennessee and a above ambassador of Nashville. 44% favorable rating; 43% unfavorable; 13% don’t apperceive

Marsha Blackburn is a House affiliate representating Tennessee’s Seventh District, aboriginal adopted in 2002, and a above accompaniment representative. 51% favorable rating; 38% unfavorable; 11% don’t apperceive

Democrats were actual admiring that Mr. Bredesen absitively to run, and Republicans are afraid that the chase has seemed so aing in a anxiously Republican state.

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Mr. Bredesen is able-bodied accepted in the accompaniment from his antecedent administration roles. He agitated all of the state’s 95 counties back he was re-elected as governor in 2006.

He is alive as a moderate, announcement himself as a pro-business accord builder. He helped accompany an N.F.L. authorization to Nashville back he was the city’s mayor.

Mr. Bredesen appear a account aftermost anniversary acknowledging Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination. He said of the Senate boyhood leader, Chuck Schumer: “I don’t alike abutment him.”

Ms. Blackburn has developed a acceptability as a hard-right firebrand, and has angry herself carefully to Admiral Trump. She alive assimilate a letter formally nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize for aggravating to end tensions on the Korean peninsula.

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At a contempo fund-raider for her, Admiral Trump said, “A vote for Marsha is absolutely a vote for me and aggregate that we angle for.”

Other organizations’ ratings:

Previous acclamation results:

It’s about best to attending at a distinct poll in the ambience of added polls:

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There’s a big catechism on top of the accepted allowance of absurdity in a poll: Who is activity to vote? It’s a decidedly arduous catechism this year, back appropriate elections accept apparent Democrats voting in ample numbers.

To appraisal the acceptable electorate, we amalgamate what bodies say about how acceptable they are to vote with advice about how generally they accept voted in the past. In antecedent races, this access has been added authentic than artlessly demography bodies at their word. But there are abounding added means to do it.

In these scenarios, academy assembly tends to be bigger for Democrats.

Just because one applicant leads in all of these altered assembly scenarios doesn’t beggarly abundant by itself. They don’t represent the abounding ambit of accessible assembly scenarios, let abandoned the abounding ambit of accessible acclamation results.

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Even if we got assembly absolutely right, the allowance of absurdity wouldn’t abduction all of the absurdity in a poll. The simplest adaptation assumes we accept a absolute accidental sample of the voting population. We do not.

People who acknowledge to surveys are about consistently too old, too white, too accomplished and too politically affianced to accurately represent everyone.

Pollsters atone by giving added weight to respondents from under-represented groups.

Here, we’re weighting by age, primary vote, gender, likelihood of voting, chase and region, mainly application abstracts from voting annal files aggregate by L2, a detached aborigine book vendor.

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But weighting works abandoned if you weight by the appropriate categories and you apperceive what the agreement of the electorate will be. In 2016, abounding pollsters didn’t weight by apprenticeship and abstract Hillary Clinton’s continuing as a result.

Alike afterwards weighting, our poll does not accept as abounding of some types of bodies as we would like.

Here are added accepted means to weight a poll:

Just because one applicant leads in all of these altered weighting scenarios doesn’t beggarly abundant by itself. They don’t represent the abounding ambit of accessible weighting scenarios, let abandoned the abounding ambit of accessible acclamation results.

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About 6 percent of voters said that they were ambivalent or banned to acquaint us whom they would vote for.

They are not abundant abundant to change the advance in our poll by themselves. But they — and others — could change their minds. (We could additionally be amiss on assembly or our sample could be unrepresentative.)

We’re allurement voters which affair they’d like to see ascendancy the Senate and whom they’d like to vote for as governor.

Voters civic are acutely disconnected forth demographic lines. Our poll suggests capacity too. But don’t overinterpret these tables. After-effects amid subgroups may not be adumbrative or reliable. Be abnormally accurate with groups with beneath than 100 respondents, apparent actuality in stripes.

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